The key story this week: the price cap is rising again — and gas is the driver
Ofgem has announced a 13% increase in the energy price cap for the period 1 July to 30 September 2026. For a “typical” dual-fuel household paying by direct debit, the capped annualised figure moves from £1,641 to £1,862.
It’s important to be clear about what this does (and doesn’t) mean. The price cap is not a cap on your total bill — it limits the unit rates (price per kWh) and standing charges suppliers can charge on standard variable tariffs and default tariffs. Your actual cost depends on how much gas and electricity you use. If you use more, you pay more — and when gas becomes more expensive at wholesale level, home heating is usually where households feel it most.
Why it matters: most UK homes heat with gas, and boilers turn kWh into comfort
Across the UK, gas remains the dominant heating fuel for homes. In practical terms, this Ofgem update isn’t just “an energy story” — it’s a heating cost story. Even if you are careful with electricity, a winter boiler that runs for hours a day can burn through thousands of kilowatt-hours of gas.
Here in Hampshire and Surrey, we see the same pattern in homes across Bordon, Whitehill, Liphook, Alton, Farnham and Haslemere: if the property is older, a bit draughty, or has an aging boiler and basic controls, a rise in gas costs gets amplified because you need more gas to maintain comfort. The cap increase landing in July might feel like “summer news”, but it sets the tone for the next heating season — and the households that get ahead now tend to avoid the biggest shocks later.
What happened behind the scenes: the cap moves because wholesale gas moved
Ofgem has pointed to higher wholesale gas costs as a key reason for the increase. Wholesale pricing is influenced by a mix of factors — global supply and demand, storage levels, infrastructure constraints, geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal expectations. The main point for homeowners is straightforward: even if your boiler is working perfectly, the price for each unit of gas it consumes can rise sharply when markets tighten.
Ofgem then allocates costs across different parts of the cap (wholesale energy, networks, policy costs, operating costs, and so on). But from a household perspective there are only three levers that really matter:
- Unit rate (what you pay per kWh)
- Standing charge (what you pay per day regardless of usage)
- Usage (how many kWh your home actually consumes)
You can’t control the first two directly (except by switching tariff/supplier), but you can control usage — and that’s where heating engineering, boiler setup, controls and insulation make a measurable difference.
What it means technically: efficiency, flow temperature and controls become “money settings”
When gas prices rise, boiler efficiency stops being an abstract percentage and becomes a real-world cost on your monthly direct debit. Here’s what to understand in plain English.
1) A boiler’s “efficiency” changes with how it’s run
Modern condensing boilers are most efficient when they can recover extra heat from the flue gases — that’s the “condensing” part. To do this reliably, your system needs to run at lower return temperatures. The practical adjustment that often unlocks this is reducing the boiler flow temperature (the temperature of the water leaving the boiler to your radiators).
Many systems are set unnecessarily high (often 70–80°C) because it “feels” like it heats faster. In reality, if your radiators are correctly sized and your home isn’t haemorrhaging heat, you can often run lower (commonly around the mid-50s for many homes) and still stay comfortable — while the boiler spends more time in efficient condensing mode.
Why it matters under a higher price cap: if your boiler is 5–10% less efficient than it could be due to settings, that’s 5–10% more gas purchased at the new higher unit rates.
2) Heating controls are not optional — they’re the gearbox
Homes around Liphook, Haslemere and Farnham often have a mix of extensions, converted lofts, or rooms used differently across the week. If you’re heating the whole house to one temperature all day, you’re paying to heat rooms you’re not using.
Good controls typically include:
- A programmable room thermostat (so heat runs when you actually need it)
- Thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs) to reduce overheating in spare rooms
- Boiler interlock so the boiler stops firing when conditions are met
- Weather compensation or load compensation (where supported) to prevent overshoot and reduce cycling
Under a rising cap, controls can deliver savings because they reduce wasted runtime — and wasted runtime is “wasted kWh”.
3) Short cycling and imbalance quietly raise bills
If your boiler fires for short bursts, turns off, then fires again repeatedly, it’s often operating inefficiently. Causes can include incorrect settings, poor system balance, an oversized boiler, or issues in the distribution side (radiators not balanced, pump problems, system sludge restricting flow).
A system that’s out of balance tends to overheat some rooms and underheat others. People then turn the thermostat up to compensate, which increases overall consumption. In areas like Bordon and Whitehill where homes can vary hugely (from newer builds to older housing), balancing is one of the most overlooked “engineering fixes” with a direct financial payoff.
What it means financially: your bill is capped per unit, not capped in total
The headline numbers are useful for scale, but your home’s cost is personal. Two households on the same street in Alton can sit under the same cap and still have bills hundreds of pounds apart because of insulation levels, occupancy, work-from-home patterns, hot water habits and boiler efficiency.
So what should you do with the information that the cap rises to an annualised £1,862 for a typical dual-fuel direct debit household?
- Assume unit rates are higher from July, and that winter rates could move again.
- Focus on reducing kWh — especially gas kWh — because that’s where the biggest volumes are in winter.
- Stop paying for avoidable inefficiency (high flow temps, uncontrolled schedules, sludge-restricted heating, dripping hot taps, over-hot cylinders).
Even small percentage improvements matter when prices jump. If your home uses, say, 12,000 kWh of gas per year (not unusual for a typical property with a gas boiler), then shaving 10% off usage is roughly 1,200 kWh saved — and that saving becomes more valuable when each unit costs more.
What it means locally: housing mix and micro-climates across our patch
National policy is one thing; how it lands locally is another. The homes we see day-to-day across Bordon, Whitehill, Liphook, Alton, Farnham and Haslemere tend to fall into a few broad categories, each with its own “best next step”.
Older, character homes (common around Farnham and Haslemere)
Solid walls, suspended floors, older glazing or partial upgrades. These properties often feel cold quickly once heating is off. The best savings usually come from keeping heat in (draught sealing, insulation upgrades where appropriate) and ensuring the boiler and radiators can run efficiently at lower temperatures.
Practical focus: balance the system, set sensible flow temperatures, and check for radiator output vs room heat loss — sometimes one or two upgraded radiators can allow lower flow temps across the home.
Newer or estates housing (more common in parts of Bordon/Whitehill)
These homes can be better insulated but still waste money through default boiler settings and basic controls. It’s common to find systems that are technically capable of high efficiency but are left in “factory” conditions.
Practical focus: review controls, run lower flow temps, and confirm the boiler is properly commissioned with correct modulation and a clean system water path.
Mixed-use homes and commuter patterns (Liphook, Alton and surrounding villages)
If occupancy varies day-to-day, schedules matter. Many households heat the home like someone’s always in — but if you’re out three days a week, you’re buying heat you don’t enjoy.
Practical focus: upgrade to a smart thermostat or at least refine schedules, use zoning/TRVs, and set hot water times tightly rather than leaving cylinders on “all day”.
What homeowners should do next (before July, and before the next heating season)
If you only react when it gets cold, you tend to spend more — because you make rushed decisions, accept emergency work, and run systems inefficiently all winter. The cap rise is a timely prompt to get your house “heating fit”.
Step 1: Check your tariff status and options (today)
Find out whether you’re on a standard variable/default tariff that tracks the cap. If you are, compare what fixed tariffs are available — not because fixing is always best, but because it’s the only way to reduce exposure to further cap changes over the next few months.
Also check your payment method: direct debit, standard credit and prepayment all have capped levels that can differ. Knowing where you sit helps you make sensible comparisons.
Step 2: Reduce boiler flow temperature if appropriate (this week)
If you have a condensing boiler and radiators, consider reducing the central heating flow temperature in small steps and observing comfort over several days. This is not about making the house colder; it’s about letting the boiler run longer and steadier, staying in condensing mode more often.
Important: hot water cylinder temperatures and hot water safety are separate from radiator flow temperature on many systems. If you’re unsure, get professional advice rather than guessing.
Step 3: Make sure your controls actually control (this month)
Confirm you have:
- A thermostat that turns the boiler off when the target temperature is reached
- Programmes that reflect when you’re home (weekday vs weekend)
- TRVs that aren’t all set to maximum as a default
Many “high bills” are just “long run hours”. Tightening schedules and preventing overheating can cut those hours without sacrificing comfort.
Step 4: Book a boiler service before the autumn rush (summer is ideal)
A proper service helps confirm safe combustion, correct operation and reliability. It’s also the best time to spot issues that quietly increase costs: fans struggling, poor ignition, incorrect gas rates, blocked condensate, or signs of heat exchanger fouling (where accessible/appropriate).
In our area, once the first cold snap hits, diaries fill fast across Farnham, Alton and Haslemere. A summer service is usually quicker to schedule and reduces the risk of a breakdown when energy prices are already biting.
Step 5: If some radiators are slow or noisy, consider a system clean and balance
Cold patches on radiators, kettling noises, frequent top-ups to pressure, or certain rooms never getting warm are all signs your system may be underperforming. A heating system is like a circulatory system — if flow is restricted, the boiler can’t deliver heat efficiently.
A full diagnosis may include checking inhibitor levels, magnetic filter condition, radiator balance, and whether a powerflush or targeted clean is justified. Done correctly, you’re not just chasing comfort; you’re reducing the amount of gas needed to achieve it.
The bigger picture: volatility rewards efficient homes
The uncomfortable truth behind this week’s update is that price cap movements are a symptom of market volatility — and volatile markets punish waste. If your home needs lots of kWh to stay warm, your costs can jump rapidly. If your home is tight, well-controlled and running an efficient heating setup, you’re far more insulated (no pun intended) from swings in unit rates.
This is why we tend to talk about boilers, controls and insulation together. A new boiler alone won’t fix a poorly controlled or badly balanced system. Likewise, great insulation with an incorrectly set boiler can still waste money. When prices rise, the “whole system” approach pays.
If you’d like us to sanity-check your boiler settings, controls, or the overall efficiency of your heating system ahead of the next season, book a visit with Embassy Gas: https://www.embassygas.com/book | helpdesk@embassygas.com | (01420) 558993